AK-Sen: SSP Moves Race From “Leans Republican” to “Tossup”

In the wake of Ted Stevens’ indictment on seven felony counts today, SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Leans Republican” to a “Tossup“.

Of all the races on our Lean R list, Alaska (along with Mississippi) was always the most ripe for moving to tossup, and Stevens’ indictment was more than enough dynamite to erase many of the advantages of his 40 years of incumbency.

While it might be tempting to shift this race into the Democratic column, our move to tossup reflects the extremely unsettled nature of this race as things stand today. Stevens may or may not survive his primary; even if he does, he could legally be replaced. He could even choose to resign before then, although Uncle Ted does not seem to be the sort of fallen pol who’s willing to slink off quietly into the night.

And while it does certainly feel as though Mark Begich has just been given an important boost, we feel it’s important to have more information in front of us before we make any further changes.

UPDATE: AK Gov. Sarah Palin says she is not interested in replacing Stevens.

36 thoughts on “AK-Sen: SSP Moves Race From “Leans Republican” to “Tossup””

  2. I really do think you give Stevens too much credit. He was already down before these indictments. Short of saving a busload of children in a drowning bus, I dont see much that could save Stevens from this.

    Our (The GOP) best hope is that Stevens, when he loses all his powers from resigning his committees, sees what life is like not being so powerful, and drops out of his re-election. But that is a long shot.

  3. 1.  Stevens survives the primary, refuses to resign.  Likely Begich.

    2.  Stevens loses the primary, then someone like Vickson, a carpetbagger and a political neophyte, wins the nomination.  Lean Begich.

    3.  Stevens survives the primary, then announces a retirement.  The party appoints a relatively popular choir boy/gal.  This person has the millstone of being Stevens’ designated successor with only a couple months to campaign (think whomever the hell it was that Zach Space ran against last cycle).  Lean Begich.

    Average the three, and I think Lean D is a decent classification.

  5. I’m keeping it pegged at #5 after VA, NM, CO and NH until I get a clearer picture of how this indictment affects the race.  But I now consider AK as being much closer to CO and NH in the rankings than before today.

  9. Larry Sabato has moved the AK-SEN race to leans dem.  He is possibly the best election analyst out there and usually plays it cautious early.  

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